PAK Vs SL, Asia Cup 2025, Super 4s Match Prediction: Who Will Win Today’s Game Between Pakistan And Sri Lanka?

As the Asia Cup 2025 heads into a thrilling Super 4s phase, all eyes are on a blockbuster clash between Pakistan and Sri Lanka at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, September 23. With semifinal hopes on the line, this encounter promises to be a nail-biting affair, with both teams coming off disappointing losses in their previous matches.

Context and Stakes

Pakistan, who were beaten by India in their previous Super 4 outing, find themselves in a must-win scenario. The loss to their arch-rivals not only dented their momentum but also exposed key weaknesses in their middle order. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, suffered a setback against Bangladesh—a defeat that ended their unbeaten run from the group stage and served as a wake-up call ahead of this crucial tie.

A loss for either team would be detrimental, making this clash effectively a knockout game in the race to the semifinals.

Pakistan’s Form and Key Players

Pakistan’s Super 4s journey began with promise but unraveled under the pressure of India’s batting juggernaut. The key concern remains their inconsistent middle order. The top order, however, is brimming with firepower:

Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub are crucial for getting Pakistan off to brisk starts.
Sahibzada Farhan has shown glimpses of brilliance and could be a game-changer.

The bowling department, often Pakistan’s strong suit, remains pivotal:

Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf are expected to be lethal in Abu Dhabi’s pace-friendly early conditions.
Mohammad Nawaz offers spin options in the middle overs.

Captain Salman Ali Agha must marshal his troops well to maintain intensity and composure in this do-or-die contest.

Sri Lanka’s Road So Far

Led by the steady Charith Asalanka, Sri Lanka topped their group in convincing fashion. However, their loss to Bangladesh in the Super 4s showed cracks—particularly in batting under pressure.

Key strengths include:

Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis at the top, who provide stability and aggression.
Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana, the ‘spin twins’, who can choke run-flow and grab wickets during the crucial middle overs.

Sri Lanka’s success will hinge on their ability to post or chase down a competitive score without collapsing—a problem that plagued them against Bangladesh.

Venue and Conditions: Sheikh Zayed Stadium Pitch Report

The pitch at Sheikh Zayed Stadium is expected to provide a balanced contest between bat and ball.

First Innings: Offers true bounce and good carry, allowing batters to score freely in the powerplay.
Second Innings: Dew could set in, making it easier for batters to chase under lights.

Spinners are expected to play a major role during the middle overs as the ball grips on the slowing surface.

Ideal Score: 160–170 will be considered competitive.

Toss Factor: Teams would prefer to chase given the likely dew factor. Toss could play a decisive role.

Head-to-Head Record (T20Is)

Matches Played: 23
Pakistan Wins: 13
Sri Lanka Wins: 10

This relatively balanced record sets the stage for another closely fought battle.

Squads at a Glance

Pakistan Squad

Saim Ayub, Sahibzada Farhan, Fakhar Zaman, Salman Agha (c), Hussain Talat, Mohammad Haris (wk), Mohammad Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed, Hasan Ali, Mohammad Wasim Jr, Salman Mirza, Sufiyan Muqeem, Khushdil Shah, Hasan Nawaz

Sri Lanka Squad

Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (c), Dasun Shanaka, Kamindu Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dunith Wellalage, Dushmantha Chameera, Nuwan Thushara, Nuwanidu Fernando, Janith Liyanage, Chamika Karunaratne, Binura Fernando, Matheesha Pathirana, Maheesh Theekshana

Key Battles to Watch

1. Fakhar Zaman vs Wanindu Hasaranga

Zaman’s aggressive left-handed batting will face a stern test against Hasaranga’s guile and variations. A powerplay clash that could set the tone for Pakistan’s innings.

2. Shaheen Afridi vs Pathum Nissanka

Afridi’s lethal inswingers early on can dismantle any top order. Nissanka will need to survive this challenge to anchor Sri Lanka’s innings.

3. Middle Overs: Theekshana & Wellalage vs Pakistan’s middle order

This phase will determine the acceleration. Pakistan’s inconsistency here is Sri Lanka’s big opportunity to apply pressure.

4. Hasan Ali & Rauf vs Kusal Mendis & Charith Asalanka

Pakistan’s death bowling under pressure versus Sri Lanka’s middle-order mainstays is another contest to watch.

Predicted Playing XIs

Pakistan:

Saim Ayub
Fakhar Zaman
Sahibzada Farhan
Salman Agha (c)
Mohammad Haris (wk)
Mohammad Nawaz
Faheem Ashraf
Shaheen Afridi
Haris Rauf
Hasan Ali
Abrar Ahmed

Sri Lanka:

Pathum Nissanka
Kusal Mendis (wk)
Kamil Mishara
Charith Asalanka (c)
Kamindu Mendis
Dasun Shanaka
Wanindu Hasaranga
Maheesh Theekshana
Nuwan Thushara
Dushmantha Chameera
Dunith Wellalage

Match Scenarios and Predictions

Case 1: Pakistan wins the toss and bowls first

Sri Lanka powerplay score: 50–60
Sri Lanka total score: 160–170

Case 2: Sri Lanka wins the toss and bowls first

Pakistan powerplay score: 40–50
Pakistan total score: 150–160

Match Prediction: Team batting second to win.

With high stakes and contrasting styles, this Super 4 contest between Pakistan and Sri Lanka could decide more than just who moves into the semis—it might shape the momentum of the entire Asia Cup 2025. Expect fireworks, emotional moments, and tactical masterstrokes in Abu Dhabi.

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