Here’s How Sri Lanka Can Still Qualify For Asia Cup 2025 Final Even After Losing To Pakistan

Sri Lanka’s journey in the Asia Cup 2025 has taken a dramatic downturn as the defending champions now find themselves on the brink of elimination. Following back-to-back defeats in the Super Four stage, the island nation sits at the bottom of the table with zero points, and only a miracle combined with mathematical wizardry can revive their chances of reaching the final.

A Grim Reality: Two Losses, Zero Points

The alarm bells rang loud in Abu Dhabi on September 19, when Sri Lanka fell short against a resurgent Pakistan side. Earlier, they had already tasted defeat at the hands of Bangladesh, leaving their Super Four tally with two losses in two matches and a Net Run Rate of -0.590—the worst among the contenders.

With just one game left in the Super Four stage—against India on September 26—Sri Lanka’s qualification no longer remains in their own hands. Their fate now rests heavily on a chain of improbable outcomes, especially those involving Bangladesh, who suddenly emerge as the tournament’s surprise kingmakers.

Qualification Scenarios: The Long Road to the Final

Here’s how the scenario breaks down:

India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh each currently have 2 points.
Sri Lanka are stuck at 0 points.
To qualify, Sri Lanka must defeat India in their last Super Four match.
But that’s not enough. For Sri Lanka to stay alive:
- Bangladesh must defeat both India and Pakistan in their remaining matches.

If this three-way upset happens, all four teams will be tied at 2 points, and the qualification will come down to Net Run Rate (NRR).

However, this means Sri Lanka would not only have to beat India—they must demolish them to compensate for their current NRR deficit.

What happens if India or Pakistan win one more match?

If either India or Pakistan wins even one more match, Sri Lanka will be eliminated before their last Super Four clash. In that case, their match against India would become a dead rubber.

The Pakistan Defeat: A Missed Opportunity

The clash with Pakistan was seen as a make-or-break game, and for brief moments, Sri Lanka looked like they could pull off a miracle. After being restricted to a modest 133, thanks largely to Kamindu Mendis’ fighting fifty, their spinners brought them back into the contest.

Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana spun a web around Pakistan’s batters, reducing them to 80/5. But the Lankan bowlers couldn’t finish the job. Salman Agha and Mohammad Haris guided Pakistan home, showcasing composure under pressure that Sri Lanka couldn’t replicate.

It was yet another match where batting collapses, poor shot selection, and lack of partnerships haunted the team.

A Pattern of Collapse: What’s Going Wrong for Sri Lanka?

While their bowling unit has occasionally shown sparks of brilliance, the batting order has looked fragile throughout the tournament. The top order has failed to give strong starts, and middle-order batters haven’t been able to absorb pressure or build match-defining innings.

The absence of big runs from Kusal Mendis, Kusal Perera, and Charith Asalanka has left too much to be done by the lower order. The overdependence on the likes of Hasaranga to contribute in both departments is hurting the team.

Tactical Missteps?

There have been growing whispers about Sri Lanka’s team combinations and strategic choices. Questionable decisions like promoting out-of-form batters and delayed bowling changes have often backfired. As defending champions, the lack of adaptability in pressure situations is glaring.

Their Last Hope: Beating India and Trusting Bangladesh

To stay in the tournament:

Sri Lanka must defeat India convincingly in Dubai.
Bangladesh must win both their matches – against India and Pakistan.

If this miracle happens, it will be one of the most dramatic comebacks in Asia Cup history. But realistically, Sri Lanka’s chances are razor-thin.

Even if this miracle scenario plays out, Sri Lanka must overturn their -0.590 NRR, while Bangladesh must not only win but avoid huge losses that might tilt the NRR battle.

Fan Disappointment and What’s at Stake

For a team that has tasted continental glory multiple times, including the 2022 title, crashing out in the Super Fours without a win would be a bitter pill. Fans have voiced their disappointment, calling for changes at both tactical and leadership levels.

More than qualification, their match against India is now about saving face, regaining some pride, and laying a foundation for the ODI World Cup 2027, which will also take place in the region.

Bangladesh: The Unlikely Kingmakers

All eyes now turn to Bangladesh, whose remaining two matches have suddenly gained monumental importance.

If the Tigers manage to:

Beat Pakistan – they eliminate Pakistan from the final.
Beat India – they ensure all teams (including Sri Lanka) are tied at 2 points.

The Asia Cup 2025 could witness a four-way NRR showdown.

Looking Ahead: Build or Break Moment for Sri Lanka

While Sri Lanka may have stumbled in 2025, their legacy in the Asia Cup remains storied. With legends like Sanath Jayasuriya, Muttiah Muralitharan, and Kumar Sangakkara in the past, the current generation must find inspiration to rebuild.

Youngsters like Wellalage, Kamindu, and Sudharsan (if given chances) will be crucial for the future. The selectors too may need to consider structural shifts.