Here’s How Australia, South Africa And Afghanistan Can Qualify For The Champions Trophy 2025 Semi Final

As the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 approaches its final group-stage encounters, Group B has transformed into a high-pressure battlefield, with South Africa, Australia, and Afghanistan all fighting tooth and nail for a coveted spot in the semifinals. The recent stunning upset by Afghanistan over England has thrown the qualification race wide open, making every remaining game a virtual knockout encounter.

With England officially eliminated, the three remaining teams—South Africa, Australia, and Afghanistan—are now engaged in a fierce contest where points, net run rate (NRR), and rain interruptions could all play a decisive role. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of the current scenarios and what each team needs to do to secure their passage to the semifinals.

The Current Landscape: A Three-Way Battle for Two Spots

The Group B standings after the recent matches are as follows:

Team	Points	NRR
South Africa	3	+2.140
Australia	3	+0.475
Afghanistan	2	-0.990
England	0	Eliminated

South Africa and Australia are tied on three points, but South Africa’s massive NRR advantage (+2.140) places them in a far stronger position than Australia (+0.475).
Afghanistan sits on two points after their heroic victory against England but remains at a significant NRR disadvantage (-0.990), making their qualification task extremely difficult.
England has been knocked out after losing both their games, making their final match against South Africa merely a formality for them but a crucial encounter for the Proteas.

With only two semifinal spots available, Australia’s final game against Afghanistan on February 28 will be a do-or-die match, while South Africa’s encounter with England on March 1 could determine the final standings.

How Points and Net Run Rate (NRR) Influence Qualification

In the Champions Trophy, teams earn:
✅ 2 points for a win
✅ 1 point for a no result or tie
✅ 0 points for a loss

If teams finish with the same number of points, NRR becomes the tiebreaker. It is calculated as:
🔹 (Total runs scored per over) – (Total runs conceded per over)

Why NRR Matters More Than Ever

South Africa’s colossal +2.140 NRR makes them almost invincible, as only a record-breaking loss to England can significantly dent their advantage.
Australia’s +0.475 NRR, while positive, is still vulnerable if they lose to Afghanistan and South Africa stumbles against England.
Afghanistan’s -0.990 NRR is a major concern. They not only need to defeat Australia but must do so by a huge margin to compensate for their poor run rate.

Simply put, winning alone isn’t enough—winning convincingly is key for teams on the bubble.

Qualification Scenarios for Each Team

If Australia Beats Afghanistan

Australia will secure 5 points and automatically qualify for the semifinals.
South Africa, with their superior NRR, will likely qualify as well unless they suffer a catastrophic defeat to England.
Afghanistan will be eliminated, regardless of NRR.

If Afghanistan Beats Australia

Afghanistan will leapfrog Australia to 4 points, throwing the race wide open.
Australia’s fate will then depend on South Africa’s match against England.
If South Africa wins against England, they will qualify alongside Afghanistan.
If South Africa loses to England, qualification will be decided based on NRR between South Africa and Australia. Given South Africa’s massive NRR advantage, Australia would need them to lose very heavily to have any hope of advancing.

If South Africa and Australia Both Win

Both teams will qualify easily, leaving Afghanistan out.

If South Africa Loses to England But Australia Wins

Australia will qualify automatically.
South Africa’s semifinal spot will depend on their NRR remaining higher than Afghanistan’s. Given their big advantage, only an extraordinarily heavy loss can knock them out.

Could Rain Play Spoilsport? The Impact of Washouts

With the monsoon season looming in Pakistan, there is always a possibility of rain affecting the crucial matches. If both Australia vs. Afghanistan and South Africa vs. England are washed out, the points table will look like this:

Team	Points	NRR
South Africa	4	+2.140
Australia	4	+0.475
Afghanistan	3	-0.990

In this case:

South Africa and Australia will qualify.
Afghanistan will be eliminated.

For Afghanistan, rain would be a cruel end to their journey, as they must win to stand a chance of progressing.

What’s at Stake for Each Team?

🏏 South Africa: Almost Safe, But Must Avoid a Disaster

✔️ With 3 points and a huge NRR, South Africa is in pole position to qualify.
✔️ If they win against England, they are 100% through.
✔️ Even if they lose, their NRR cushion should still see them through—unless it’s a massive defeat.

🏏 Australia: A Win Guarantees a Semifinal Spot

✔️ If Australia beats Afghanistan, they will qualify comfortably.
✔️ If they lose, they will need South Africa to lose heavily to England to have any hope.

🏏 Afghanistan: A Must-Win Game with a Big Margin

✔️ Afghanistan must beat Australia to stay alive.
✔️ Even if they win, they need South Africa to lose to England to have a clear path to the semifinals.
✔️ Their poor NRR makes things difficult, meaning they must win big to keep up.
✔️ If rain washes out their match, they are eliminated.

Final Verdict: Who Are the Favorites to Qualify?

Given the current points table and NRR situation, South Africa looks the safest bet to qualify, even if they suffer a minor setback. Australia, too, has a strong chance, but they must be cautious against Afghanistan.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle. They not only must beat Australia but do so by a significant margin, while also hoping England pulls off an upset against South Africa.

A Nail-Biting Finish Awaits in Group B

The ICC Champions Trophy 2025 has already provided thrilling upsets and edge-of-the-seat encounters, and the final group-stage matches promise to be even more intense.

With three teams battling for two spots, the next few days will decide which teams march into the semifinals and which team sees their dream shattered.

Will South Africa’s strong NRR protect them?
Can Afghanistan pull off another upset?
Will Australia hold their nerve under pressure?

The answers will unfold soon, and cricket fans around the world couldn’t have asked for a better climax to the group-stage drama!

Please check for information on the best betting sites in India – https://selectory.org/best-betting-sites/